An Endometrial Cancer Chemoprevention Study of Metformin

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (159 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebokgindex bmimass indexbody mass
  Phrases that lowered it: patientscancermetformindlprogram
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 168 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 413 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 75000 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13961 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 12 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sex: female (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Study of Metformin for Reduction of Obesity-Associated Breast Cancer Risk NCT02028221 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Pilot Study to Evaluate the Effects of a Short Course of Metformin Versus No Therapy in the Period Prior to Hysterectomy for Grade 1-2 Adenocarcinoma of the Endometrium in Obese Non-Diabetic Women NCT01877564 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Implication of Metformin Plus Aromatase Inhibitor in Obese Postmenopausal Breast Cancer Women NCT05053841 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Exercise and Metformin in Colorectal and Breast Cancer Survivors NCT01340300 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Metformin and Omega-3 Fatty Acids in Woman With a History of Early Stage Breast Cancer NCT02278965 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.