A Randomized Pilot Study to Evaluate the Effects of a Short Course of Metformin Versus No Therapy in the Period Prior to Hysterectomy for Grade 1-2 Adenocarcinoma of the Endometrium in Obese Non-Diabetic Women

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercelladenocarcinomafunctionadequate
  Phrases that lowered it: metformintype diabetesdiabetes mellitussubjectsinsulin
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14278 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 78849 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 71 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Endometrial Cancer Chemoprevention Study of Metformin NCT01697566 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Metformin With the Levonorgestrel-Releasing Intrauterine Device for the Treatment of Complex Atypical Hyperplasia (CAH) and Endometrial Cancer (EC) in Non-surgical Patients NCT02035787 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Adjuvant Metformin for Operable Breast Cancer Patients NCT00909506 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Metformin for Reduction of Obesity-Associated Breast Cancer Risk NCT02028221 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Implication of Metformin Plus Aromatase Inhibitor in Obese Postmenopausal Breast Cancer Women NCT05053841 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.