Study of Everolimus, Pemetrexed, Carboplatin, and Bevacizumab to Treat Stage IV Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungsmall cellnon smallstage
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whogastrointestinaladvancedfunctionimpairment
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11309 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Everolimus, Carboplatin, and Etoposide in Treating Patients With Small Cell Lung Cancer or Other Advanced Solid Tumors NCT00807755 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Study of Everolimus With Paclitaxel and Carboplatin in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT01014351 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Patients With Advanced Solid Malignancies With TSC1, TSC2, NF1, NF2, or STK11 Mutations NCT02352844 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Trial of Paclitaxel/Bevacizumab +/- Everolimus for Patients With HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00915603 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Everolimus for Cancer With TSC1 or TSC2 Mutation NCT02201212 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.