Prospective Randomized Trial Comparing the Effectiveness of Continuous Paravertebral Infusion of Local Anesthetics Versus Intravenous Patient-controlled Analgesia on Acute and Chronic Neuropathic Pain After VATS Lobectomy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungcancerivpatienteffects
  Phrases that lowered it: painopeninvestigatehistoryor suspected
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 78 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Thoracic Paravertebral Block for Postoperative Analgesia After Video-assisted Thoracic Surgery. NCT01082744 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Three Different Pain Blocks for Subjects Undergoing VATS (Video Assisted Thoracoscopic Surgery) Procedure. NCT03151434 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Exparel and Marcaine for Pain Management in Thoracoscopic Lobectomy Patients NCT03682224 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Video-assisted Thoracoscopic Surgery - Exparel Study NCT04864210 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Pilot Study: Paravertebral Analgesia vs Epidural Analgesia After Thoracotomy NCT01700491 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.