Exparel and Marcaine for Pain Management in Thoracoscopic Lobectomy Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painsurgerysubjectopioidgreater
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstrialcopdcompareinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 2 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Perioperative Lidocaine Administration in Thoracoscopic Surgery for Improved Postoperative Pain Control NCT03677817 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Local Anesthetic as Single Shot Versus Catheter in Patients Undergoing Video Assisted Thoracoscopic Surgery NCT04559347 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Comparison of Three Different Pain Blocks for Subjects Undergoing VATS (Video Assisted Thoracoscopic Surgery) Procedure. NCT03151434 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Video-assisted Thoracoscopic Surgery - Exparel Study NCT04864210 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Prospective Randomized Trial Comparing the Effectiveness of Continuous Paravertebral Infusion of Local Anesthetics Versus Intravenous Patient-controlled Analgesia on Acute and Chronic Neuropathic Pain After VATS Lobectomy NCT01703351 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.