Bevacizumab vs Dacarbazine in Metastatic Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsbevacizumabpatientmelanomainr
  Phrases that lowered it: daystrialdiabetesmellitustype
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 63365 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15563 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Bevacizumab and Temozolomide or Bevacizumab and Paclitaxel Albumin-Stabilized Nanoparticle Formulation and Carboplatin in Treating Patients With Stage IV Malignant Melanoma That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT00626405 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Bevacizumab Plus Ipilimumab in Patients With Unresectable Stage III or IV Melanoma NCT00790010 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Trial of Vemurafenib/Cobimetinib With or Without Bevacizumab in Patients With Stage IV BRAFV600 Mutant Melanoma NCT01495988 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Biochemotherapy and Bevacizumab Followed by Consolidation Therapy With Ipilimumab for Metastatic Melanoma NCT01743157 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib in Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma Patients NCT03224208 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.