Comparison of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy With Weekly Paclitaxel or Eribulin Followed by A/C in Women With Locally Advanced HER2-Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationor equalmetastaticequal toventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: aim ofovarianclinicalperformedsolid
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12361 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Allocation: randomized (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Randomized Trial Evaluating Neoadjuvant Therapy With Neratinib and/or Trastuzumab Followed by Postoperative Trastuzumab in Women With Locally Advanced HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT01008150 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• BETH Study: Treatment of HER2 Positive Breast Cancer With Chemotherapy Plus Trastuzumab vs Chemotherapy Plus Trastuzumab Plus Bevacizumab NCT00625898 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Eribulin/Cyclophosphamide or Docetaxel/Cyclophosphamide as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Locally Advanced HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01527487 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Trial of Eribulin Followed by Doxorubicin & Cyclophosphamide for Her2-negative, Locally Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01498588 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Docetaxel and Cyclophosphamide Compared to Anthracycline-Based Chemotherapy in Treating Women With HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01547741 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.