Trial of Eribulin/Cyclophosphamide or Docetaxel/Cyclophosphamide as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Locally Advanced HER2-Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularheartulnstudy treatmentdefined
  Phrases that lowered it: ovariantrialpatients whodrugshcv
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Allocation: randomized (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 78 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7570 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant Ixabepilone/Carboplatin/Trastuzumab in HER2-Positive Locally Advanced Breast Cancer NCT00821886 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy With Weekly Paclitaxel or Eribulin Followed by A/C in Women With Locally Advanced HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01705691 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Trial of Eribulin Followed by Doxorubicin & Cyclophosphamide for Her2-negative, Locally Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01498588 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Trastuzumab Versus Lapatinib as Neoadjuvant Treatment for Her2+ Patients NCT00841828 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• De-escalation Adjuvant Chemo in HER2+/ER-/node-neg Early BC Patients Who Achieved PCR After Neoadjuvant Chemo & Dual HER2 Blockade NCT04675827 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.