De-escalation Adjuvant Chemo in HER2+/ER-/node-neg Early BC Patients Who Achieved PCR After Neoadjuvant Chemo & Dual HER2 Blockade

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularheartqtblockin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: cyclesm2breastaccordingsubject with
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9857 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 68023 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study With Pembrolizumab in Combination With Dual Anti-HER2 Blockade With Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab in Early Breast Cancer Patients With Molecular HER2-enriched Intrinsic Subtype (Keyriched-1) NCT03988036 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Dual Blockage With Afatinib and Trastuzumab as Neoadjuvant Treatment for Patients With Locally Advanced or Operable Breast Cancer Receiving Taxane-anthracycline Containing Chemotherapy NCT01594177 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Trial of Eribulin/Cyclophosphamide or Docetaxel/Cyclophosphamide as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Locally Advanced HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01527487 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Trastuzumab Deruxtecan in First-line HER2-positive Locally Advanced/MBC Patients Resistant to Trastuzumab+Pertuzumab NCT05744375 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Addition of PD-L1 Antibody MEDI4736 to a Taxane-anthracycline Chemotherapy in Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT02685059 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.