A Study of Abiraterone Acetate Plus Low-Dose Prednisone Plus Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) Versus ADT Alone in Newly Diagnosed Participants With High-Risk, Metastatic Hormone-Naive Prostate Cancer (mHNPC)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-02-13, after 2013-02-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticradiationcancerpriorcell
Phrases that lowered it: prostateparticipantsandrogenabirateronehormone -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 92 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 57998 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13230 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 74 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 92 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 57998 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13230 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- abiraterone, prednisone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Abiraterone With Discontinuation of Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone Analogues in Metastatic Prostate Cancer NCT03565835 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Darolutamide in Addition to ADT Versus ADT in Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer NCT04736199 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Neo-adjuvant Abiraterone + Luteinizing Hormone-Releasing Hormone (LHRH) Versus LHRH in Prostate Cancer NCT01088529 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Abiraterone Acetate in Asymptomatic or Mildly Symptomatic Patients With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT00887198 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- A Study to Test if Enzalutamide is Effective and Safe in Prostate Cancer Patients Who Have Never Had Hormone Therapy NCT01302041 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.