Abiraterone With Discontinuation of Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone Analogues in Metastatic Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustheartpatientmguln
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatepressureabirateronetestosteronehormone
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 203309 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 38340 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• S1014 Abiraterone Acetate in Treating Patients With Prostate Cancer Who Have Undergone Initial Hormone Therapy NCT01309672 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study of Increased-Dose Abiraterone Acetate in Patients With Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01637402 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Study of Abiraterone Acetate Plus ADT Versus APALUTAMIDE Versus Abiraterone and APALUTAMIDE in Patients With Advanced Prostate Cancer With Non-castrate Testosterone Levels NCT02867020 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• RE-sensitizing With Supraphysiologic Testosterone to Overcome REsistance (The RESTORE Study) NCT02090114 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• IMAAGEN: Impact of Abiraterone Acetate in Prostate-Specific Antigen NCT01314118 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.