Optimization of Bevacizumab Scheduling With Chemotherapy for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-12-31, after 2012-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagemetastaticpriorchemotherapytherapy
Phrases that lowered it: evaluateupper normalliverthe uppermale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12822 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 69141 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 11 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 69141 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12822 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, capecitabine, fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Combination Chemotherapy and Bevacizumab With or Without Bevacizumab Maintenance Therapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00952029 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- De-escalation Chemotherapies Versus Escalation in Non Pre-treated Unresectable Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02842580 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- Maintenance Bevacizumab Only or Bevacizumab Plus Metronomic Chemotherapy in Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT02271464 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- A Comparison of mXELIRI Regimen and FOLFIRI Combined Bevacizumab Regimen as First-line Chemotherapy Regimen for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04247984 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Multicenter, Clinical Study of FOLFOXIRI With Bevacizumab As First-line Therapy in Patients With mCRC NCT02246049 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.