Study of LGX818 and Cetuximab or LGX818, BYL719, and Cetuximab in BRAF Mutant Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercetuximabmetastaticpatientsegfr
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicallydiabetesopenlabeldisease other
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 281 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1178 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 11 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase Ib/II Study of LGX818 in Combination With MEK162 in Adult Patients With BRAF Dependent Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01543698 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study of Oral LGX818 in Adult Patients With Advanced or Metastatic BRAF Mutant Melanoma NCT01436656 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study of WNT974 in Combination With LGX818 and Cetuximab in Patients With BRAF-mutant Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (mCRC) and Wnt Pathway Mutations NCT02278133 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Study of Select Drug Combinations in Adult Patients With Advanced/Metastatic BRAF V600 Colorectal Cancer NCT04294160 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Encorafenib, Binimetinib and Cetuximab in Subjects With Previously Untreated BRAF-mutant ColoRectal Cancer NCT03693170 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.