A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Subcutaneous MK-3222, Followed by an Optional Long-Term Safety Extension Study, in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis (MK-3222-010)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensionterm safetylong termtolerability ofwomen of
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisplaquemkand safetyefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety/Tolerability of Subcutaneous Tildrakizumab (SCH 900222/MK-3222) in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis Followed by a Long-term Extension Study (MK-3222-011) NCT01729754 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Determine the Optimal Dose of Tildrakizumab (SCH 900222/MK-3222) for the Treatment of Moderate-to-severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis (P05495) (MK-3222-003) NCT01225731 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• A Phase Ⅲ Study to Evaluate Tildrakizumab in the Treatment of Chinese Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaquetype Psoriasis NCT05108766 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study in Participants With Moderate to Severe Psoriasis NCT01474512 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of D-2570 in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT06278350 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.