A Phase Ⅲ Study to Evaluate Tildrakizumab in the Treatment of Chinese Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaquetype Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hascarcinomasubject iscellcardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialvaccinethe efficacyalcoholinvestigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 42.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Tildrakizumab Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Active Psoriatic Arthritis I (INSPIRE 1) NCT04314544 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Tildrakizumab in the Treatment of Scalp Psoriasis NCT03897088 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Subcutaneous MK-3222, Followed by an Optional Long-Term Safety Extension Study, in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis (MK-3222-010) NCT01722331 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of LZM012 ( Psoriasis ) NCT07746479 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity of BI 695501 Versus Humira® in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT02850965 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.