A Long-Term Safety Extension of Studies ABE4869g and ABE4955g in Participants With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Treated With Crenezumab

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerlong termcellkidneyterm safety
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantmalesafetyuse of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 69 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 135 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Crenezumab in Participants With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer Disease NCT02353598 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Study of Crenezumab Versus Placebo in Preclinical Presenilin1 (PSEN1) E280A Mutation Carriers to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety in the Treatment of Autosomal-Dominant Alzheimer's Disease (AD), Including a Placebo-Treated Non-Carrier Cohort NCT01998841 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label Crenezumab Study in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT03491150 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Receptor Occupancy of BMS-984923 NCT04805983 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of GSK4527226 [AL101] in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT06079190 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.