CTLA-4 Blockade and Low Dose Cyclophosphamide in Patients With Advanced Malignant Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celladvancedpatientscanceradequate
  Phrases that lowered it: productsat screeningsubjects whointerferoncontraception
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7028 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 64 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Autologous TriMix-DC Therapeutic Vaccine in Combination With Ipilimumab in Patients With Previously Treated Unresectable Stage III or IV Melanoma NCT01302496 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study of Ipilumimab and Radiation in Poor Prognosis Melanoma NCT01996202 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Addition of Ipilimumab (MDX-010) To Isolated Limb Infusion (ILI) With Standard Melphalan and Dactinomycin In The Treatment of Advanced Unresectable Melanoma of The Extremity NCT01323517 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Trial of Neoadjuvant Ipilimumab Followed by Melphalan Via Isolated Limb Infusion for Patients With Unresectable In-transit Extremity Melanoma NCT02115243 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab + Temozolomide in Metastatic Melanoma NCT01119508 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.