Study of Ozanezumab (GSK1223249) Versus Placebo in the Treatment of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosisivsurvivalprogressioneligible
  Phrases that lowered it: visitand safetypharmacokineticsefficacy andrandomised
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1698 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 352 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety and Biomarker Study of ALZT-OP1a in Subjects With Mild-Moderate ALS Disease NCT04428775 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation the Efficacy and Safety of Mutiple Lenzumestrocel (Neuronata-R® Inj.) Treatment in Patients With ALS NCT04745299 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Safety of Engensis in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT04632225 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Effects of ODM-109 on Respiratory Function in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT02487407 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Ibudilast (MN-166) in Subjects With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT02238626 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.