Viral Oncoprotein Targeted Autologous T Cell Therapy for Merkel Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartcoronarypulmonarycellsartery
  Phrases that lowered it: trialhiv infectionmedical historyinvestigatorclinical
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 118 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 327 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Localized Radiation Therapy or Recombinant Interferon Beta and Avelumab With or Without Cellular Adoptive Immunotherapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Merkel Cell Carcinoma NCT02584829 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Gene-Modified Immune Cells (FH-MCVA2TCR) in Treating Patients With Metastatic or Unresectable Merkel Cell Cancer NCT03747484 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
• Therapeutic Autologous Lymphocytes, Cyclophosphamide, and Aldesleukin in Treating Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT01106235 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab and Radiation Therapy or Ipilimumab as Adjuvant Therapy in Treating Patients With Merkel Cell Cancer NCT03798639 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Gene-Modified T Cells, Vaccine Therapy, and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Malignancies NCT02070406 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.