Localized Radiation Therapy or Recombinant Interferon Beta and Avelumab With or Without Cellular Adoptive Immunotherapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Merkel Cell Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-12-18, after 2015-11-06 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellscellcarcinomatumorradiation
Phrases that lowered it: asthmafev1influenzaaminotransferasegroup -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 158 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 20 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2294 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 282 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- avelumab, interferon, interferon beta
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Viral Oncoprotein Targeted Autologous T Cell Therapy for Merkel Cell Carcinoma NCT01758458 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Gene-Modified Immune Cells (FH-MCVA2TCR) in Treating Patients With Metastatic or Unresectable Merkel Cell Cancer NCT03747484 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
- Avelumab in Participants With Merkel Cell Carcinoma (JAVELIN Merkel 200) NCT02155647 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab and Radiation Therapy or Ipilimumab as Adjuvant Therapy in Treating Patients With Merkel Cell Cancer NCT03798639 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- QUILT-3.009: Patients With Stage III (IIIB) or Stage (IV) Merkel Cell Carcinoma (MCC) NCT02465957 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.