Avelumab in Participants With Merkel Cell Carcinoma (JAVELIN Merkel 200)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-05-03, after 2014-07-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomahearttherapycelltransplantation
Phrases that lowered it: participantsvaccineparticipanttrialand safety -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- avelumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Anti-CD137 and Anti-CTLA-4 Monoclonal Antibody in Patients With Advanced Cancer NCT04121676 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) as First-line Therapy for Advanced Merkel Cell Carcinoma (MK-3475-913) NCT03783078 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Study of ASP0739 Alone and With Pembrolizumab in Advanced Solid Tumors With NY-ESO-1 Expression Participants NCT04939701 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
- QUILT-3.063: A Study of N-803, haNK and Avelumab in Patients With Merkel Cell Carcinoma That Has Progressed After Checkpoint Therapy NCT03853317 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Localized Radiation Therapy or Recombinant Interferon Beta and Avelumab With or Without Cellular Adoptive Immunotherapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Merkel Cell Carcinoma NCT02584829 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.