Vitamin D3 Supplementation for Low-Risk Prostate Cancer: A Randomized Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-05-11, after 2013-01-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerdlserumradiationstage
Phrases that lowered it: subjectsprostateclinicaldailymale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13320 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 57277 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: government (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 104 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 110 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 57277 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13320 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cholecalciferol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Vitamin D Supplementation in Veterans With Early-Stage Prostate Cancer NCT00953225 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D and Prostate Cancer: A Clinical Study Enrolling Subjects Undergoing Prostatectomy NCT02726113 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D Supplementation in RNA-seq Profiles of Single-core Prostate Samples, Among Veterans NCT04621500 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- A Study to Examine the Effectiveness of Aspirin and/or Vitamin D3 to Prevent Prostate Cancer Progression NCT03103152 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Biomarker Study of Neoadjuvant Vitamin E in Patients With Locally Treatable Prostate Cancer NCT00809458 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.