A Study to Examine the Effectiveness of Aspirin and/or Vitamin D3 to Prevent Prostate Cancer Progression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (131 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerprostatetherapystagebiopsy
  Phrases that lowered it: per day20clinicalmalealcohol
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 63256 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 322454 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Open- Label Trial of Sipuleucel-T Administered to Active Surveillance Patients for Newly Diagnosed Prostate Cancer NCT03686683 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Vitamin D3 Supplementation for Low-Risk Prostate Cancer: A Randomized Trial NCT01759771 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Herbal Therapy for Treatment of Recurrent Prostate Cancer NCT00669656 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Study of Enzalutamide in Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer Undergoing Active Surveillance NCT02799745 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant And Adjuvant Abiraterone Acetate + Apalutamide Prostate Cancer Undergoing Prostatectomy NCT02903368 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.