Eltrombopag Phase III Study In Chinese Chronic ITP Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 481 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 302 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectqtcpriorcardiacqt
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetysafety ofefficacy andsubjects whothe efficacy
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lusutrombopag in the Treatment of Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP) NCT06287567 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Eltrombopag in Pediatric Patients With Thrombocytopenia From Chronic Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT00908037 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Clinical Evaluation of Eltrombopag in Chronic Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT00828750 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Phase 2, Pharmacokinetics Study of Eltrombopag in Japanese Thrombocytopenic Subjects With Chronic Liver Disease NCT00861601 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study of a New Medication for Childhood Chronic Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP), a Blood Disorder of Low Platelet Counts That Can Lead to Bruising Easily, Bleeding Gums, and/or Bleeding Inside the Body. NCT01520909 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.