Pharmacodynamic Study of AZD1722 in End-stage Renal Disease Patients on Hemodialysis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationstablepriorstartingstage
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgevaluatedaystudyweek
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Finding Study to Treat High Phosphate Levels in the Blood. NCT02081534 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• End-stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Pilot Study NCT03787368 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Effect of ASP1517 After Intermittent Oral Dosing in Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease Patients With Anemia Compared With Darbepoetin as a Reference Drug NCT01888445 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• 16-Week Repeat Oral Dose Study of AKB-6548 for Anemia in Participants With End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Requiring Chronic Hemodialysis NCT02260193 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Trial of Twice-weekly Versus Thrice-weekly Hemodialysis in Patients With Incident End-stage Kidney Disease NCT03740048 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.