End-stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Pilot Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 815 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagehemodialysisacuterandomizationtherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofthe pharmacokineticsundergoingof drugbetween 18
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pharmacodynamic Study of AZD1722 in End-stage Renal Disease Patients on Hemodialysis NCT01764854 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• 16-Week Repeat Oral Dose Study of AKB-6548 for Anemia in Participants With End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Requiring Chronic Hemodialysis NCT02260193 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Long Term Extension Study for the Maintenance Treatment of Anemia Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in Hemodialysis Subjects on Epoetin Alfa / Beta Treatment Versus BAY85-3934 NCT02064426 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Dose Finding Study to Treat High Phosphate Levels in the Blood. NCT02081534 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics and Safety of Alisporivir in Subjects With End Stage Renal Disease on Hemodialysis Compared to Healthy Subjects NCT01975337 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.