An Open-label, Dose Escalation, Pharmacodynamic, Pharmacokinetic, and Effect of Food Phase 1 Study of E7820 to Determine the Maximum Tolerated Dose Following Twice Daily Oral Administration in Subjects With Unresectable Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastasesgreateror equalequal tobone
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsopen labelpharmacokineticperiodan open
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of E7046 in Subjects With Selected Advanced Malignancies NCT02540291 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• An Open-label, Multicenter, Multiple Dose, Phase 1 Study to Establish the Maximum Tolerated Dose of E7389 Liposomal Formulation in Patients With Solid Tumors NCT01945710 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of the Poly(ADP-Ribose) Polymerase Inhibitor E7016 in Combination With Temozolomide in Subjects With Wild Type BRAF Stage IV or Unresectable Stage III Melanoma NCT01605162 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability & PK of KX2-361 in Subjects w Adv. Malignancies Refractory to Conventional Therapies NCT02326441 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Dose-Seeking Study of MPT0E028 in Subjects With Advanced Solid Malignancies Without Standard Treatment NCT02350868 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.