Phase 2 Study of Neoadjuvant Vemurafenib in Melanoma Patients With Untreated Brain Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 23% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomametastasesmetastaticmalignancyvemurafenib
  Phrases that lowered it: trialof clinicallyclinicalinhibitorsweeks before
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 243 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1890 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Vemurafenib in Metastatic Melanoma Participants With Brain Metastases NCT01378975 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Treatment of Dabrafenib Plus Trametinib in Subjects With BRAF Mutation-Positive Melanoma That Has Metastasized to the Brain NCT02039947 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label, Randomized, Multicenter Trial of Encorafenib + Binimetinib Evaluating a Standard-dose and a High-dose Regimen in Patients With BRAFV600-mutant Melanoma Brain Metastasis NCT03911869 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• A Study Comparing Vemurafenib Versus Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib in Participants With Metastatic Melanoma NCT01689519 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Phase II Safety Study of Vemurafenib Followed by Ipilimumab in Subjects With V600 BRAF Mutated Advanced Melanoma NCT01673854 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.