Safety Study of Afatinib and Postoperative Radiation Therapy to Treat Head and Neck Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerheadriskand neckradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: participants withdrugsafety ofclinicalpositive
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 164 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Afatinib After Chemoradiation and Surgery in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck at High-Risk of Recurrence NCT01824823 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Dual Inhibition of EGFR With Afatinib and Cetuximab in the Treatment of Advanced Squamous Cell Cancers of the Head and Neck NCT02979977 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Phase I/II Study Afatinib/Carboplatin/Paclitaxel Induction Chemotherapy In HPV-Negative HNSCC. NCT01732640 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Neoadjuvant Afatinib Window Study in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT01538381 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Trial of Abraxane, Cisplatin and 5-Fluorouracil Along With Chemoradiotherapy in Advanced Head and Neck Cancer NCT00731380 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.