A Phase I/II Study Afatinib/Carboplatin/Paclitaxel Induction Chemotherapy In HPV-Negative HNSCC.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 40% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellheartpatients muststagecongestive
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andobjectivethe efficacysmokers
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9668 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45120 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 118 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of the Tolerance of Afatinib in Combination With Docetaxel and Cisplatin in LAHNSCC Induction Chemotherapy NCT02216617 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Trial of Afatinib (BIBW 2992) + Cetuximab in Advanced Solid Tumours NCT02020577 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Dual Inhibition of EGFR With Afatinib and Cetuximab in the Treatment of Advanced Squamous Cell Cancers of the Head and Neck NCT02979977 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Afatinib (BIBW 2992) in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With EGFR Mutation NCT01953913 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Afatinib After Chemoradiation and Surgery in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck at High-Risk of Recurrence NCT01824823 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.