Afatinib (BIBW 2992) in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With EGFR Mutation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartlungmm3myocardialcell
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialsafety ofjudgedadvancedinvestigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 131 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 200 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Afatinib in Patients With Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT02044380 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study of Intermittent, High-dose Afatinib to Determine the Maximal Tolerated Dose and Assess Activity of This Dose Against Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With T790M Mutations NCT01647711 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Trial of Afatinib (BIBW 2992) + Cetuximab in Advanced Solid Tumours NCT02020577 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Deciphering Afatinib Response and Resistance With INtratumour Heterogeneity NCT02183883 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Afatinib on CNS Metastases and LMD in EGFR Mutation Positive NSCLC NCT03711422 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.