Trial of Afatinib (BIBW 2992) + Cetuximab in Advanced Solid Tumours
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-04-30, after 2013-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lungof studysurgerysmalldefined
Phrases that lowered it: trialadvancedefficacy andpatientsand safety -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 220 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 220 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 140 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 13331 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1657 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 76.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- afatinib, cetuximab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Intermittent, High-dose Afatinib to Determine the Maximal Tolerated Dose and Assess Activity of This Dose Against Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With T790M Mutations NCT01647711 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Afatinib (BIBW 2992) in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With EGFR Mutation NCT01953913 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Afatinib in NSCLC With HER2 Mutation NCT02597946 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Afatinib on CNS Metastases and LMD in EGFR Mutation Positive NSCLC NCT03711422 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
- Afatinib in Patients With Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT02044380 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.