Afatinib in Patients With Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-02-29, after 2014-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticcelllunglocallycancer
Phrases that lowered it: the trialaim oftrial drugpatientslabel -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 138 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 235 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 235 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 138 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 196 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 191 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 62.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- afatinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Afatinib (BIBW 2992) in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With EGFR Mutation NCT01953913 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Study of Intermittent, High-dose Afatinib to Determine the Maximal Tolerated Dose and Assess Activity of This Dose Against Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With T790M Mutations NCT01647711 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Afatinib in NSCLC With HER2 Mutation NCT02597946 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Trial of Afatinib (BIBW 2992) + Cetuximab in Advanced Solid Tumours NCT02020577 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Maintaining ERBB Blockade in EGFR-mutated Lung Cancer NCT02488694 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.