Evaluation of the Tolerance of Afatinib in Combination With Docetaxel and Cisplatin in LAHNSCC Induction Chemotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancertypechemotherapypatientand neck
  Phrases that lowered it: livermm3pulmonarymmhgvirus
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 32643 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase I/II Study Afatinib/Carboplatin/Paclitaxel Induction Chemotherapy In HPV-Negative HNSCC. NCT01732640 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Afatinib (BIBW 2992) + Cetuximab in Advanced Solid Tumours NCT02020577 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• LUX-Head&Neck 3: Afatinib (BIBW2992) Versus Methotrexate for the Treatment of Recurrent and/or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer After Platinum Based Chemotherapy NCT01856478 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Afatinib (BIBW 2992) in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With EGFR Mutation NCT01953913 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study of Intermittent, High-dose Afatinib to Determine the Maximal Tolerated Dose and Assess Activity of This Dose Against Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With T790M Mutations NCT01647711 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.