COSMIC-HF - Chronic Oral Study of Myosin Activation to Increase Contractility in Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-08-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebodouble blindcontrolledrandomizedpressure
  Phrases that lowered it: ulnaminotransferaselimitupperangina
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 9 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of IV Infusion Treatment With Omecamtiv Mecarbil in Subjects With Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction Hospitalized for Acute Heart Failure (ATOMIC-AHF) NCT01300013 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Safety, PK, and Efficacy of Omecamtiv Mecarbil in Japanese Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02695420 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Registrational Study With Omecamtiv Mecarbil (AMG 423) to Treat Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02929329 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• v4 Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of MYK-491 NCT03447990 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Effect of Danicamtiv on the Drug Levels of Midazolam in Participants With Stable Heart Failure NCT05952089 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.