Registrational Study With Omecamtiv Mecarbil (AMG 423) to Treat Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 40% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectsplacebowith chronicscreening
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyeventsefficacy andsafety ofaccording
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, PK, and Efficacy of Omecamtiv Mecarbil in Japanese Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02695420 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of IV Infusion Treatment With Omecamtiv Mecarbil in Subjects With Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction Hospitalized for Acute Heart Failure (ATOMIC-AHF) NCT01300013 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• COSMIC-HF - Chronic Oral Study of Myosin Activation to Increase Contractility in Heart Failure NCT01786512 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Effect of Omecamtiv Mecarbil on Exercise Capacity in Subjects With Heart Failure NCT03759392 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3540378 in Participants With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) NCT05592275 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.