A Comparative Effectiveness Study of Major Glycemia-lowering Medications for Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (159 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: type diabetesinsulinmetforminglucosem2
  Phrases that lowered it: cancerparticipantgradetherapyperipheral
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 93282 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 3 Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Gemigliptin and Vildagliptin as Add-on Therapy to Metformin in People With Type 2 Diabetes Inadequately Controlled With Metformin NCT02343926 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Diabetes Study of Linagliptin and Empagliflozin in Children and Adolescents (DINAMO)TM NCT03429543 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Comparison of Metformin/Glimepiride Combination Versus Each Compound Alone in New Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Patients NCT01459809 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Insulin Glargine/Lixisenatide Fixed Ratio Combination in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Insufficiently Controlled With Oral Antidiabetic Drug(s) NCT03798054 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Multiple Ascending Dose Study of MK-5160 in Participants With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (MK-5160-002) NCT03095651 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.