Oleogel-S10 in Wound Healing of Split-Thickness Skin Graft Donor Sites (BSG-12)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicpurpose ofacutebreastbirth
  Phrases that lowered it: participantefficacytrialmultipledrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Oleogel-S10 in Wound Healing of Split-Thickness Skin Graft Donor Sites (BSH-12) NCT01657305 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Trial to Compare Intra-individually the Efficacy and Tolerance of Oleogel-S10 Versus Moist Wound Healing Dressing Alone in Accelerating the Epithelialization of Split Thickness Skin Graft Donor Sites NCT01294254 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Oleogel-S10 Versus Standard of Care in Healing of Grade 2a Burn Wounds NCT01657292 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Tyrosur® Gel-Investigation on Wound Healing Efficacy NCT01227759 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of 0.25% Timolol Gel in Enhancing Full Thickness Skin Grafts Healing and Cosmetic Outcomes NCT03579160 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.