Efficacy and Safety of 0.25% Timolol Gel in Enhancing Full Thickness Skin Grafts Healing and Cosmetic Outcomes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-01-10, after 2019-01-02 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: safetyto determinerandomizedstudy iscontrolled
Phrases that lowered it: cancerpatients whouncontrolledarthritisstandard -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 89 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 326 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 326 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 89 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 17247 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2546 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- timolol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of 0.25% Timolol Gel in Healing Surgical Open Wounds NCT03452072 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Oleogel-S10 in Wound Healing of Split-Thickness Skin Graft Donor Sites (BSH-12) NCT01657305 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Oleogel-S10 in Wound Healing of Split-Thickness Skin Graft Donor Sites (BSG-12) NCT01807650 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Trial to Compare Intra-individually the Efficacy and Tolerance of Oleogel-S10 Versus Moist Wound Healing Dressing Alone in Accelerating the Epithelialization of Split Thickness Skin Graft Donor Sites NCT01294254 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Efficacy Study of GLYC-101 to Evaluate Outcomes After Laser Ablation NCT00792688 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.