Beta-Amyloid Imaging With [18F]NAV4694 PET in Predicting Progression to AD in Subjects MCI
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-11-02, after 2013-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mribrainalzheimerdiseasead
Phrases that lowered it: alcoholinvestigatehas historyscreeninginvestigator -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- [18F]MK-3328 as a Possible Novel Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Tracer for the Detection of Brain Amyloid Plaques (MK-3328-002) NCT01385033 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
- A Longitudinal Evaluation of a Radiotracer for Use in Tau Tracking NCT03919669 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- [18F]MK-6240 Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Tracer First-in-Human Validation Study (MK-6240-001) NCT02562989 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Longitudinal Changes of [18F]PI-2620 Positron Emission Tomography in Subjects With Cognitively Normal, Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease NCT03903211 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- The Synapse Project NCT04871074 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.