Longitudinal Changes of [18F]PI-2620 Positron Emission Tomography in Subjects With Cognitively Normal, Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the patientalzheimerpatient hassubjects withthe subject
  Phrases that lowered it: individualsevaluatevisittrialhas history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• [18F]THK-5351 Positron Emission Computed Tomography Study of Normal, Mild Cognitive Impairment, Alzheimer's Disease and Other Neurodegenerative Disease NCT02656498 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Phase I [18F]THK-5351 Positron Emission Tomography Study in Healthy Subjects and Alzheimer's Disease NCT03112096 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Imaging Characteristics of [18F]PI-2620 PET in AD and PSP Patients Using High and Low Specific Activity NCT04715750 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Evaluation Comparing Tau PET Radiotracers, [18F]GTP1 and [18F]PI-2620 or [18F]MK-6240 in Subjects With Normal Cognition or Prodromal to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT04566003 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Beta-Amyloid Imaging With [18F]NAV4694 PET in Predicting Progression to AD in Subjects MCI NCT01812213 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.