Ponatinib in Advanced NSCLC w/ RET Translocations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 27% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclccancercell lungsmall cellnon small
  Phrases that lowered it: participantssafetydrugtrialhistory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 190 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 391 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 176 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Pralsetinib Versus Standard of Care for First-Line Treatment of Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT04222972 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1/2 Study of the Highly-selective RET Inhibitor, Pralsetinib (BLU-667), in Participants With Thyroid Cancer, Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, and Other Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03037385 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Ponatinib for Squamous Cell Lung and Head and Neck Cancers NCT01761747 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Ponatinib for Advanced Medullary Thyroid Cancer NCT01838642 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Study of Ponatinib in Patients With Lung Cancer Preselected Using Different Candidate Predictive Biomarkers NCT01935336 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.