Ponatinib for Advanced Medullary Thyroid Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-01-31, after 2013-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patients musttimes ulnequal toor equalcancer
Phrases that lowered it: advancedor metastatictumorsblood pressurefirst dose -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 109 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 21 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 21 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ponatinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ponatinib for Patients Whose Advanced Solid Tumor Cancer Has Activating Mutations Involving the Following Genes: FGFR1, FGFR2, FGFR3, FGFR4, RET, KIT. NCT02272998 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Study of Ponatinib in Patients With Lung Cancer Preselected Using Different Candidate Predictive Biomarkers NCT01935336 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Ponatinib in Advanced NSCLC w/ RET Translocations NCT01813734 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Ponatinib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Advanced Biliary Cancer With FGFR2 Fusions NCT02265341 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- A Targeted Phase I/II Trial of ZD6474 (Vandetanib; ZACTIMA) Plus the Proteasome Inhibitor, Bortezomib (Velcade ), in Adults With Solid Tumors With a Focus on Hereditary or Sporadic, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Medullary Thyroid Cancer (MTC) NCT00923247 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.