Safety and Efficacy of Buparlisib (BKM120) in Patients With Untreated Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-06-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclcpatientcell lungnon smallsmall cell
  Phrases that lowered it: trialphase iidrugsaccordingcombination
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 305 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 31449 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6535 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Study of Buparlisib + Docetaxel in Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Patients NCT01911325 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• TAS-102 in Previously Treated Unresectable or Metastatic Squamous Cell Lung Carcinoma (UF-STO-LUNG-003) NCT02920476 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Abraxane as Maintenance Treatment After Abraxane Plus Carboplatin in 1st Line Stage IIIB / IV Squamous Cell Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02027428 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Placebo-controlled Study Comparing Niraparib Plus Pembrolizumab Versus Placebo Plus Pembrolizumab as Maintenance Therapy in Participants With Advanced/Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04475939 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed+Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With First Line Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-189/KEYNOTE-189) NCT02578680 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.