Phase II Study of Buparlisib + Docetaxel in Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: squamouspatientstagechemotherapytumor
  Phrases that lowered it: advanced orpatients whoparticipateopen labelregimen
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 560 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 313 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 9 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Buparlisib (BKM120) in Patients With Untreated Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01820325 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) in Combination With Gemcitabine/Cisplatin, Pemetrexed/Cisplatin, Carboplatin/Paclitaxel, Bevacizumab Maintenance, Erlotinib, Ipilimumab or as Monotherapy in Subjects With Stage IIIB/IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (CheckMate 012) NCT01454102 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of BKM120 in Patients With Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01297491 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study of BMS-936558 (Nivolumab) Compared to Docetaxel in Previously Treated Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Cell Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (CheckMate 017) NCT01642004 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Trial of BI 6727 (Volasertib) Monotherapy and BI 6727 in Combination With Pemetrexed Compared to Pemetrexed Monotherapy in Advanced NSCLC NCT00824408 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.