Phase 3b Study of Metvix NDL-PDT Versus Metvix c-PDT in Subjects With Actinic Keratoses

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: paindiagnosisgradediseasenon
  Phrases that lowered it: vehiclefacecentresubject withactinic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Intra-individual Comparison of Efficacy and Safety of Metvix® Natural Daylight Photodynamic Therapy Versus Conventional Metvix® Photodynamic Therapy in Subject With Mild Actinic Keratoses NCT01475071 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Daylight Photodynamic Therapy for Actinic Keratosis NCT03322293 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Actinic Keratoses Treatment With Metvix® in Combination With Light NCT02373371 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Multicenter Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Methyl Aminolevulinate Hydrochloride (MAL) 16.8% Cream (CD06809-41) Versus Vehicle Cream for Actinic Keratosis of the Face NCT04085367 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Safety and Efficacy of BF-200 ALA for the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis With Photodynamic Therapy NCT02799069 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.