Multicenter Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Methyl Aminolevulinate Hydrochloride (MAL) 16.8% Cream (CD06809-41) Versus Vehicle Cream for Actinic Keratosis of the Face

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to assessassess thetherapytreatmentdl
  Phrases that lowered it: vehicleefficacy andparticipantsand safetyface
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of AM001 Cream in the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis NCT03210740 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Phase 3b Study of Metvix NDL-PDT Versus Metvix c-PDT in Subjects With Actinic Keratoses NCT01821391 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Safety and Efficacy of BF-200 ALA for the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis With Photodynamic Therapy NCT02799069 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Daylight Photodynamic Therapy for Actinic Keratosis NCT03322293 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Recurrence of Actinic Keratosis in Participants Treated With Methyl Aminolevulinate Hydrochloride Cream or Vehicle Cream Who Achieved Complete Response to Treated Lesions in Earlier Study NCT04269395 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.