Paired Psoriasis Lesion, Comparative, Study to Evaluate MOL4239 in Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebotumortherapyrandomizationsurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasistopicalplaqueareavulgaris
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate and Compare the Efficacy and Pharmacokinetics of MK-0873 for the Treatment of Plaque Psoriasis (MK-0873-022) NCT01235728 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Effects of Desoximetasone Spray 0.25% on Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT01206387 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing AM001 Cream to Vehicle in the Treatment of Plaque Psoriasis NCT01938599 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Trial To Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of MC2-01 Cream Compared To CAL/BDP Gel and Vehicle In Plaque Psoriasis Subjects NCT07357831 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A 12-Day Randomized, Blinded, Vehicle and Active Comparator-Controlled Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Six Concentrations of Topical E6201 Gel in Subjects With Psoriasis Vulgaris NCT01268527 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.