Effects of Quercetin on Blood Sugar and Blood Vessel Function in Type 2 Diabetes.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-03-31, after 2013-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: type diabetesplaceboindexinsulinhours
Phrases that lowered it: patientsparticipantsexcludedhypertensiondisease -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 820 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 149 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- acarbose, quercetin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effects of Saxagliptin on Endothelial Function NCT01319357 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Sitagliptin Therapy and Kinetics of Inflammatory Markers NCT02536248 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Antidiabetic Effects of Adding a DPP-4 Inhibitor to Pre-Existing Treatment With an Incretin Mimetic in Patients With T2D NCT01937598 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- GPR119 Agonist for Hypoglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes NCT04432090 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Effect of LY2189265 on Insulin Secretion in Response to Intravenous Glucose NCT01300260 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.