Evaluation of a Multi-phosphopeptide Vaccine Plus PolyICLC in Participants With High Risk and Advanced Malignancies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainchemotherapyradiationmelanomacancer
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvaccinemultipleadministeredtract
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study of a Helper Peptide Vaccine Plus Adjuvant Combinations for the Treatment of Melanoma NCT02425306 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Evaluating the Safety and the Biological Effects of Intratumoral Interferon Gamma and a Peptide-Based Vaccine in Patients With Melanoma NCT00977145 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Messenger RNA (mRNA)-Based, Personalized Cancer Vaccine Against Neoantigens Expressed by the Autologous Cancer NCT03480152 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• A Personal Cancer Vaccine (NEO-PV-01) and APX005M or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT03597282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Ability of a Dendritic Cell Vaccine to Immunize Melanoma or Epithelial Cancer Patients Against Defined Mutated Neoantigens Expressed by the Autologous Cancer NCT03300843 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.